A Presidential Review

I realize that it has been some time since I last posted on this blog. Forgive the absence, with the start of a new position, most all my time and energies are being directed there. If you are sincerely curious about what I am doing these days, feel free to visit www.wvfpc.org. If you like what you see, you may make a tax deductible donation on that same page.

But, to return to blogging. I will endeavor to do this more often and will probably change the format of the blog to so reflect. Do, please, forgive the irregularity of the posts. That is, after all, the hallmark that distinguishes a blog from a "cyber column."

I recently offered some thoughts on a particular Presidential candidate, which prompted my friend to ask me for further thoughts. Not being slow to offer an opinion, I thought I would take a few minutes to offer my personal (not professional) analysis. What follows are solely the thoughts of Jeremiah G. Dys, Esq., and not that of any organization:

The GOP:

First things first, nearly any candidate in this field is capable of, in an even battle, defeating nearly any candidate the DNC has to offer. But, we are not talking about the general election. We are first talking about a primary. That is a subtle, though important, distinction to make. Still, we have here a field of fiscal conservatives with a mixed bag of social conservative positions.

This primary, as well as the election that follows, is a watershed moment for the GOP. Since Reagan's departure, the GOP has been slouching towards liberalism, with a few bright spots around the 1994 Contract with America. The reason for this is simple: many in the GOP lack a spine and honestly believe it is best to compromise than to possess political (and moral) conviction.

The party nominee in '08 must unite the social, economic, and philosophic conservatives or the GOP will no longer be the GOP. I believe Dobson will make good on his threat to form a third party if the social conservative is sacrificed in the name of electability. That could be a travesty or the bravest rhetoric ever spoken.

Now, the field:

Sam Brownback. Sure, I know he's not in it anymore, but what Brownback did was elevate the discussion on values voting. Even now, as a non-candidate, he is speaking volumes. Rumor had him as a possible VP candidate with Giuliani, only to find him yesterday endorsing McCain. Either of those comes as a major, "huh?" to people who know the dyed-in-the-wool prof-lifer that is Sam Brownback. I appreciated his candidacy and look forward to, in some way, bolstering his rumored run for governor in Kansas.

John McCain. Whenever I watch John McCain speak, I recall the line from a song in Steven Soundheim's, "Into the Woods," when the princes sing, "Agony! Beyond power of speech, When the one thing you want, Is the only thing out of your reach." Mainly, I stop at, "Agony!" McCain stopped being a conservative years ago and now seems bent on making this the Grand Moderate Party. The problem is, he knows he cannot win that way. The conflict between appeasing the base and doing his own thing evidences itself as, well, "Agony!"

Ron Paul. George Soros' favorite candidate. I think Paul is downright hilarious to listen and watch. He has quite the impassioned delivery and believes what he believes quite forcibly, if erroneously. Still, the Libertarian office is down the hall. Thanks for playing. Paul is doing so well, from what I understand, because left-wing interests are pushing his support as the potential straw man for Hillary....I mean, the DNC nominee....to knock down.

Tom Tancredo. I was more impressed in person with Tancredo than I thought I would be. He is more conservative than he's appeared in some of the debates I've watched. Still, whether it is the "look" or "charisma" he lacks, he's not Presidential fodder.

Duncan Hunter. If I was impressed with Tancredo, I was blown away by Duncan Hunter! Hunter shows stripes of a former conservative California politician that revolutionized the GOP almost 30 years ago. His military service, and his son's current military service, makes him unassailable in the War on Terror. Socially, he nails the issues that are key to values voters. Economically, his tax plan is satisfactory. Sadly, however, he will remain the b-list Presidential candidate, but perhaps a fair pick for a veep nod.

Alan Keyes. Yeah, I forgot he was running too. Ambassador Keyes dramatically shifted the debates of the Dole/Clinton election, but is perhaps left to tending his think tank, Renew America.

Mike Huckabee. "I come from among you," said Huck to a crowd of 2500+ values voters. This former Baptist minister and governor of Arkansas has defied all odds and malevolent opinions of Presidential candidates from Hope, Arkansas. As social conservatives go, Huckabee is the poster boy. His years in the pulpit make him a crowd favorite and, among churchgoers, Huckabee can hardly be questioned. Perhaps the best line from any debate was his response to Ron Paul, "Sir, we may lose elections, but we must never lose our honor." He is the social/philosophic conservative candidate with a lovely economic plan (fair tax). Sadly, with all the tacit support being lobbed upon him, he's failed to make the next jump, though he's steadily rising. Questions abound as to his stomach for foreign policy and the war on terror. The log house republicans certainly don't care for his social absolutism. And the left is shaking at the prospect of having a Baptist minister in office. The question is why hasn't he received more tracking in the polls? Everyone you talk to loves the guy, but, invariably, the next sentence is, "But I just don't think he can win." Let's wait until after Super Tuesday to see where he ends up, but perhaps his best bet (and the best for the GOP, frankly) is to see him and Romney get together, Huckabee as Romney's running mate. That would be a dynamic duo indeed.

Mitt Romney. Conservative turned liberal turned conservative. Romney's been all things to all people, but none have felt he's been insincere. He possesses some liberal baggage from up in Kennedy-land, but when I heard him in person, I was grandly impressed. He has the look and swagger of a presidential candidate. If Jon Edwards wasn't in the race, he'd have the best hair too! He has courted some very high-profile names for endorsement: Jay Sekulow, Dennis Hastert, Paul Weyrich, and Wayne Grudem. His overtures to the evangelical right has also not been missed and has been equally successful, if a bit bought off. Still, the stumbling blocks for Romney are these: his flip-flop-flip on political ideology and his Mormonism. His Mormonism can be overcome, but it will take a LOT of convincing in the Bible belt. The flipping and flopping, however, may not - especially after the '04 chants of the GOP toward Kerry! I think he is genuine in his conservatism and he is possessed of the professionalism that we expect of our chief executive - which is how he is running his campaign: the CEO in chief. Still, if he wants to wrest this away from the field, make a deal with Huckabee. He's the only candidate Huckabee will not be able to upstage. He needs Huckabee's evangelical cred. Together, it would be a two headed monster of gloom for Hillary....I mean, the DNC nominee.

Rudy Giuliani. Rudy's triumph has been two-fold: Notre Dame football lore and being "America's Mayor." Greatly disliking Notre Dame football, I have to like him or not on his record in NYC. Strategically, his handler's best move has been to make this primary about the general election. That has forced everyone, news media and candidate, to say, "I can beat Hillary....I mean, the DNC nominee....too!" That is the true politics of fear: Hillary or Giuliani. Socially, Giuliani is a liberal. Let's face it, he favors homosexual "marriage," abortion, and doesn't have a great personal record on those values roughly 57 million evangelical voters hold dear. Clearly, when Dobson said he'd form a third party if a non-pro-life candidate was nominated, he had Rudy in mind. That could be his death-knell. When I heard him speak, it really bothered me that he said, "Christianity is a religion of inclusion...." Huh?! I'd expect something like that out of the left, that's how liberal theologians and agnostics explain us, but not a person seeking my vote! Bad move, Rudy. Despite the media's tacit nomination of Rudy, I am not convinced he has this thing sown up.

Fred Thompson. Anyone else disenchanted by "Rear Admiral Painter?" Fred has put me to sleep several times while watching him. And yet, I'm mesmorized by him. A friend described him well when he said, "He might be the last man standing." Thompson has his baggage, no doubt. But, he quotes the Federalist Papers. You can't fault him on that. He's a tried and true prosecutor and analyzes everything, like my other friend said, like a Federal judge. Yet, he speaks in a commonplace manner, which is offputting and comfortable in a political world that is often intimidating and annoying. Thompson lags in the polls in IA, MI, and NH, but is doing well in the states with big votes, FL, CA, PA. The question is why? There's almost a mystique about Fred, as if he's the great unknown that everyone loves if for no other reason than they just don't know him yet. January will be a decisive month for Fred. Or maybe February, or whenever he gets around to it. What is sure is this: at some point, he has got to communicate that he enthusiastically wants the position of President of the United States. This "dark horse" mystique will eventually wear off and whatever is underneath will have to be exposed. Just what that will do to his chances remains to be seen.

So, that's the GOP field. I'll do the DNC if and when I feel like it. I think my thoughts are easily summarized: yikes!!

Until next time, enjoy your Dysfunction.